One man's reflection about the seas and what it means to our lives.
Nowhere to Hide
 The recent Chilean earthquake, coming hard on the heels of the devastating temblor in Haiti, is both a practical reminder and a dramatic metaphor about the ways we are all connected on Earth, and the fragility of our existence in the face of cataclysmic forces and processes. Besides the damage from the enormous energy released by the Chilean quake, the fifth strongest ever measured, the world was captivated by the prospect of tsunami waves that spread out from the epicenter threatening to reach every inch of the vast Pacific Basin. With images of the terrifying 2003 Southeast Asian tsunami still fresh in our collective imagination, for the better part of that day scientists frantically tried to predict the timing and scope of the tsunami threat. That the threat failed to materialize to the extent initially forecast is indicative both of the scientific community’s tendency to err on the side of caution, as well as to the inadequacy of tools and paucity of data still at their disposal to make truly accurate predictions. This is as true for determining the immediate threat from a tsunami, or a much slower-moving threat from rising ocean temperature or sea levels.
 Nevertheless, I found myself mesmerized by the way the tsunami threat seemed to shrink the world as countries and peoples as much as 10,000 miles apart were linked via the ocean by common concern and fear. Even though my view of the physical world remains unchanged, in true Einsteinian and McLuhan fashion, I realized how the speed and quality of communications were dramatically altering my perception of the world. I realized that if the threat had been real, as future threats are bound to be, the fact is that in our shrinking world we are able to respond faster, warn faster, mobilize faster and even repair faster. If there is a silver lining in the Chilean disaster, it is this evidence that whatever threat is on our horizon, we are more capable than ever of addressing it. Yet, as I watched the scenes of devastation from Chile I wondered how it is possible to instill the same awareness and empowerment about the slower- moving threats we face from changing ocean conditions that threaten us just as surely and profoundly as a sudden 8.8 magnitude earthquake.
With the Chilean earthquake still on my mind, I happened to view Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates’ recent speech at the annual TED Awards. Noted for his extraordinary work in the field of health and education for the poorest 25 percent of Earth’s population, I was surprised to hear Gates speak on the environment, and equally surprised at how his comments resonated with my emerging understanding of our capacity to respond and adapt. His reason for entering the environmental arena, he said, was that no single aspect of our world, or our future, poses more threat to human prosperity and development than that posed by environmental decline, in particular our dependence on fossil fuels for the planet’s energy needs. His argument
was persuasive, not because it rested on moral and ethical posturing, but because it relied exclusively on what he sees as the dire economic consequences of failing to find new, inexpensive and less damaging way to produce the energy that will be required by humanity – both the richest and poorest segments – in the years ahead. His argument was also persuasive because it was so positive. We have 20 years, he said, a decade to develop and invest in new technology – everything from solar, wind, tidal, large and small- scale nuclear – and a decade to deploy it, before the planet reaches a point at which catastrophic events will overpower our ability to make positive change.
Perhaps the most disarming aspect of his speech was the way he addressed the long-standing “human versus natural” debate over global warming. The reason to act now, he said, is simple mathematics. It makes no difference who or what is causing climate change, the only real truth is that we cannot afford the existing cost of hydrocarbon-based power generation, nor can we afford the political, social and long-term economic cost that is the inevitable consequence of extreme poverty, which is still rising dramatically and is predicted to continue doing so in the years ahead due in large measure to rising costs of energy. If there is an environmental benefit as well, he said, we should look at it strictly as “a bonus.” Gates’ views are refreshing not just because they come from such an unexpected source, but because they come from someone who has helped shrink our world as much as anyone in our generation. Gates knows the power of technology and human ingenuity to create profound and beneficial change. That he is deeply optimistic should be empowering to us all. His message, and that of the Chilean earthquake, is that in our digital, satellite-driven, nano- second-processing world, there is no place to hide from disaster. But at the same time there is no place for a bona fide solution to remain hidden from our view.
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